We Don't Need No Reprobation

How to identify underperformers in a given Limited environment, before you'd first cast them.

Reprobation earned my biggest ever shift in value on any card in any limited environment.  I started off thinking of all the things this card could let me do; attack in the air with fliers with nothing to block or race me or synergizing with Pyrophobia to never allow my opponent a chance to get their one block off with the 0/1 left behind.  I envisioned answering Murasa Behemoths and other big creatures, all for a measly 2 mana and a small life rebate to the opponent paid later, just like Swords to Plowshares.  Maybe this card would be bad sometimes, but I didn't understand at the time just how bad this card would be.

Not Seeing the Forest for the Trees

Like the vast majority of cards in Magic, context is what defines how powerful any given card is.  With no standard of what costs give what effect, cards would have massive variance in powelevel, but in reality you generally get some ballpark of the same deal at every cost.  Of course there will always be outliers, but the vast majority of cards, especially printed in the last 10 years, have a good relation between cost and general power.  Reprobation, on its face, is a 2 mana removal spell at sorcery speed, very similar to Pacificm, which is often a great removal spell in most formats.  If the rate is comparable to other cards that are good, and the context isn't that much different than many limited formats before in terms of how spells are priced, what makes Reprobation so awful by comparison?

1. Reprobation leaves behind a creature that can block, but much more importantly one that can attack.  In a set with Ninjitsu, a creature answered with Reprobation early on will often help get a Ninja in later on, often as soon as the following turn.
2. Blink is one of the major themes of the set, and there are numerous low cost bounce effects as well.  Reprobation doesn't work well in the face of cards like Ephemerate and Soulherder, but also lines up poorly against String of Disappearances and Man-o-War.
3. Aggressive decks don't have the breathing room to give opponents a life rebate on removal spells, and aren't often attacking with fliers.  White decks especially only have Answered Prayers that can get around a creature with Reprobation
4. The interaction with Pyrophobia never comes up, as opponents are incentivized to block with Reprobation enchanted creatures early on to avoid it.

Course Corrections

Once I was shown each drawback through the set's gameplay, I quickly started either not playing Reprobation or only playing it as a 1 off in decks that I thought could afford the various drawbacks. In the meantime, I lost a lot of games and drafted much weaker decks because I misidentified the power-level of this card, and what it meant for the format in general.  As far as the format goes, this card underperforming left White with no cheap removal option like the other colors had, meaning that in any White deck you had to make sure you picked up cards like Pyrophobia, Defile, Winter's Rest, and Savage Swipe from the other colors so that your deck could function effectively.  This also puts a damper on how good White can be in general, as without a card that would normally be one of its most important commons, White decks are going to lose to random creatures that can't be answered much more often than any other decks.  This tension also incentivizes White to be more proactive, as it doesn't have access to effective reactive cards and must generate pressure against the opponent to compensate.

Another Lesson on Context and Feeling Smart

I expect to remember the lessons I learned from Reprobation for every future Limited format, as not taking context into account properly when evaluating cards is going to lead to lots of bad evaluations that can be avoided.  Examples like this are more egregious, as so many of the set mechanics just embarrass this card with Ninjitsu and Blink as major set themes, that a quick read of some of WoTC's initial articles about Modern Horizons would allow for easy dismissal for cards like this.

Underlined above is the biggest reason I feel like I evaluated this card wrong; it made me feel smart.  I recall distinctly seeing Pyrophobia before I saw this card for the first time, and I think Pyrophobia is a more obvious "good enough in limited" style removal spell than most.  My brain made a bunch of leaps from here, as I pegged Reprobation as a card good in R/W decks that also played Pyrophobia, totally ignoring that other people would figure out the same interaction just as easily.  Getting tricked by "feeling smart" is the biggest mistake I see any above average player make, and I fall victim to the same often as well.  Often, I'll go out of my way to point out either to myself or to others this phenomenon with certain cards to try and train myself to avoid this fallacy. Sling-Gang Lieutenant would be the premium uncommon poster child for concept, as while it's a fantastic card I often see players take it over anything else in the set, and I can't help but think of how this card makes people feel when they play it as the biggest reason for that, rather than how often it actually translates into winning.

In summary, always know what the set themes are when you're evaluating cards for the first time, they're often readily available and can be learned in just a few minutes, and you won't make an embarrassing mistake like I did here.

A Quick Note on "Bad" Cards

Before we finish up here on this article entirely about the card "Reprobation", I want to offer a reminder that this card still has its functions even if it isn't generally strong.  The vast majority of cards in Limited at least have some fringe uses, but sometimes you have to be creative to maximize them.

• Against big, vanilla creatures, the card actually performs.  If you're looking to answer Murasa Behemoth, Krosan Tusker, or even Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis, this card will do just that.
• If you have very few to 0 removal spells in your deck, having the first copy of Reprobation will help solve some problems you wouldn't otherwise, thus earning an inclusion.
• Against decks with Iceberg Cancrix, where you can attack into the Cancrix with anything, and then Reprobation after blocks to have it die as an 0/1.  

Signing Off,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg on Twitter
sealedawaymtg.podbean.com in podcast form, Episode 2 is out now!