Lost in a Haze

 On Bloodhaze Wolverine, I wrote the following:

Bluffing will gives this a lot of its overall power, as the vast majority of the enablers for this are cheap and draw cards.  While I don't recommend playing like that at your local prerelease, treat this creature like it's unblockable the vast majority of the time and you'll get a lot more mileage out of this.  Mental games aside I like this one an awful lot, as triggering it is easy enough to make it feel like a 2 mana 3/2 with first strike.

While I'm not saying I missed the mark on this, I've largely played with and against this card as if my words meant nothing.  It's not just that I'm never bluffing with this, I'm always blocking it when it's on the other side.  My opponents always have something, and it almost never matters in the long run.  I only attack with this when I have something, and my opponents almost always block.  What gives here?

How Match-Ups and Plans Change Cards

The vast majority of times I or my opponents play Bloodhaze Wolverine is in Mono Red or the most aggressive versions of U/R, in other cases it just doesn't get registered.  The powerlevel of this format is high enough that most decks can't afford to play a 2/1 for 2 with no abilities, as the lack of late game scaling and general irrelevance against the de facto defensive creatures, all with 4 toughness, leads to a card that's more often than not, useless.  Mono Red bucks this trend, as anything that can combine well with Barge In or Torbran is worth an inclusion.  As you're also looking for a critical mass of cheap creatures, any 2 power 2 mana creature is going to be good enough.  U/R is where this card is always a 3/2 First Strike, but that deck is much more interested in setting up cards like Improbable Alliance and Mad Ratter, and much less interested in a cheap aggressive creature.

The primary deck where this card is supposed to shine just isn't that interested, and the other deck is all about pushing through damage and avoiding long games.  When a card like Bloodhaze Wolverine is only played in a deck that generally wants to trade its cards for damage, it becomes better generically to just block.

• Mono Red decks lack repeatable ways to trigger Bloodhaze Wolverine, because of Merchant of the Vale it'll only trigger for free once or twice.
• If your opponent is interested in trading cards for damage, the reverse becomes more palatable for you.  Losing Jousting Dummy to a Bloodhaze Wolverine trigger buys you 3 life, making it easier to cast your bigger cards later on.
• When there's reasonable incentive to bluff, your opponent has lesser odds to actually have something.  As you're still OK trading a card for 3 life and some of your opponents mana, it becomes less risky to try to catch an opponent sneaking 2 past you.

Tactics have to change with unexpected context, heavily influencing the way Bloodhaze Wolverine plays.  Despite my initial impression that I'd never block, it turns out I always block.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg

Sealed Away MTG Episode 7: Throne of Eldraine Draft Recap Part 1

Podcast here.

I took Emry out of a reasonable pack, then was met with this unbelievably bad 2nd pick.  I took Broom, but I could see arguments for a bunch of others, here.

As an addendum to my last meta post, I'm starting to get really burnt out on playing, writing, and recording, and something has to give.  Pressuring myself to post stats hasn't felt particularly healthy; I'm not taking losses well any more or having fun, so that'll have to stop.  My rating/record have sunk quite a bit since, just know that.

I'd like the podcast to stay on schedule, an hour every Sunday night, but articles are going to come out when I have something worthwhile to write about, which I'll definitely have every week, but it'll be at the rate I'm inspired, not on a particular schedule.  Some of my recent articles have been well below my standards, and that's been a result of my failure to beat the pressure.

This Week's Cast

It's a shallow dive into Throne of Eldraine, with an emphasis on preparing for competitive events.  I talk mono-color decks and the best color pairs.  Next week will be a follow-up, where I explore the weaker colors.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg

Teaming Up

Will and Rowan Kenrith team up to make The Royal Scions, a deceptively powerful U/R Planeswalker with the same major draw as set poster boy Oko, Thief of Crowns.  Millions of loyalty.  I can honestly say that this is my most opened Mythic rare in any set I've ever played by percentage, and as such I've got more experience drafting with it than most of the Rares in the set, and even some of the uncommons, like Revenge of Ravens.  The Royal Scions is the only Planeswalker I've had multiple copies of in any Limited deck.

The Royal Scions primarily works well with:

• Any Blue or Red "Draw Two" card, such as Mad Ratter and Improbable Alliance.
• Conditional cards, like Fires of Invention or Fling, as you have access to lots of selection.  Conditional cards get to shine, but also turn into something else when they don't.
• Cheap cards, especially high impact ones like Scorching Dragonfire.  As you want to discard all of your excess lands, cards that are strong when operating off of 5 or fewer lands in play get better.
• 2 Mana creatures, such as Corridor Monitor or Jousting Dummy.  The ability to loot repeatedly and work toward the ultimate wants a 2 drop to help protect the Royal Scions.

While this card is a strong pull toward U/R, I've been happy to splash it in my effectively mono-Red decks, as they work well off low land counts and make good use of the pump ability.

Becoming an Expert

On this blog I love to talk about incentives, and repeatedly seeing a given rare or mythic will help get you up to speed on a card's respective incentives fast.  While it's incredibly fortunate for myself to have my most opened rare/mythic be a strong Planeswalker, this phenomenon is incredibly common; everyone will have cards they open at high rates, and everyone's experience will be different.  Intuitively we'd expect to open a relatively even distribution of every rare and mythic, but as we're unlikely to draft often enough for things to even out, despite having the same odds you'll simply see some cards more often.  Drafting tons is my thing and it has been for years, and I've had formats where I've opened the same Mythic 5 or 6 times as often as any of the others, such as Naru Meha, Master Wizard from Dominaria.

Taking advantage of however this effect effects you is just another way you can increase your equity, as that above-average rare you seem to consistently open will quickly become a card you understand better than everyone else.  I've certainly been guilty of bemoaning my luck when not opening the best of the best cards in the set, and in doing that I've missed out on a lot of ways I could have gained my own unique edge on fellow drafters.

Sample Decks

While not a shining example of a deck featuring Royal Scions front, the above deck is doing everything I want to do, just at a power level I wasn't happy with.  Mantle of the Tides and Bloodhaze Wolverine get massively better when you can ditch them for something else later on, as well as having their abilities active consistently.  Our curve here is super low, but we can afford to play a lot of lands taking advantage of our various looting and rummaging effects.

Another deck that didn't have the power level I wanted, but here I was easily able to throw The Royal Scions into my deck as the most powerful off color card I had.  It was tough for my opponent to effectively attack it when they had so much pressure on their life totals, and my 2-1 record was much more a product of my playset of Jousting Dummy, rather than The Royal Scions underperforming.

Draft Strategy

The Royal Scions is a good first pick, and is one of the better cards in the set overall.  With that said, it's an incredibly committal one, and lacks the power of Oko or Garruk, which are the closest cousins.  Generally if I've first picked The Royal Scions, I want to put myself into either Blue or Red, but not both unless it's incredibly obvious it's open to you.  As most of the cards that go well with it have a single colored mana symbol, it's easy to play The Royal Scions and some cards that go well with it in a deck that plays 12/5.

This is not a Planeswalker to get married to, as while there's certainly a pay-off you're not going to do much winning in your 22 bad cards and a Royal Scions deck.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg

Article schedule is a tad backed up this week, thing should return to normal by Saturday.

Pick Order Power Conflict

Thanks to my newest friend, Clockwork Servant, I've been able to break out of quite a slump in this format.  While I had previously identified that I wanted to be mono-color as often as possible, my pick order wasn't reflecting it as I was trying to take "good cards" early.

What Changes a Pick Order?

In general, a first pick involves taking the best card out of a pack.  The definition you should have of best card should be the card that has the highest correlation between inclusion in your deck and the highest winrate.  Every pick in every draft is spent in the hopes of getting as much equity as possible, culminating into a deck at the end that will win and lose largely based on how strong it is, with your own play often coming secondary.

A few factors will exhibit some sway on what a first pick will look like:

Long Term Factors:

• Cards that require building around, or cards that scale positively with total number of copies.  Good examples of this would be The Magic Mirror, as a powerful card when built around, and Seven Dwarves, as a card that scales with how many copies you can get.  Obviously we'd never first pick Seven Dwarves, but cards of these two classes get much better the more time and picks you have remaining to see more of what they want.
• Cards that are flexible.  Flexible cards often sacrifice a lot of power, but weighed against their odds of actually making the final deck get much better.  Stonecoil Serpent would be a poor example here as it's just too powerful, but Scalding Cauldron works great as it is a relatively average role player in most decks, even shining once in a while, and moves up so much in value because it can go anywhere.
• Color Balance in a given environment.  Although this has its exceptions, generally good cards of a bad color suffer the consequences.  In formats where the worst color is reasonable this can reverse itself, as picking a few powerful cards of a given color becomes like a "license" to draft that color, for example Serra the Benevolent in Modern Horizons. For Magic Arena players, stick to drafting the good colors.

Long term factors make up the vast majority of what influences an early pick.  Time at this point is your largest resource; spend it.

Pack Texture

•  A pack heavy on cards of 1-2 specific colors, which is a pack that will often cause fighting at the draft table, specifically over colors thought to be "strong".  A pack with 5 very strong Black cards and one slightly less strong Blue card should influence you toward taking the slightly less powerful Blue card, to avoid fighting over Black with your neighbors.
• Self-contained combos, such as Witch's Oven and Cauldron Familiar.  Having the ability to take a card that combos with another, with knowledge that you'll likely get the other half back on the wheel, can substantially effect a draft pick.

Pick order changes based on pack texture occur substantially less often than those based on long term factors, likely less than 5% of first picks should be affected.

Effects in Throne of Eldraine

My current philosophy in Throne of Eldraine is that the vast majority of early picks should be non-committal or cards you could reasonably splash in a mono-colored deck off 3 lands.  Epic Downfall, for instance, is a card I previously rated highly but will now first pick out of the vast majority of packs.  Clockwork Servant is a card that has skyrocketed in my pick-order, as despite it sending you toward mono-colored decks, that's exactly where I want to end up, and I don't care at this point which of the 5 colors I get to be.

With this change, I've got to the point where I'm taking Scorching Dragonfire over Bake into a Pie and never taking Syr Konrad the Grim at all.  Black has been largely undraftable for me lately, which has been a huge influence on why I've stopped taking the BB cards early.  I will for example, take Clackbridge Troll first, but it's because I've started to rate it just a touch above Syr Konrad, so it's just too good to pass.  The rares in this set are just better than I've been giving them credit for, and I'd recommend starting with whatever one you open if you're unsure what's best.

My current pick order for my first few picks looks something like this:

1st.  Best Rares/Mythics: Realmcloaked Giant, Stonecoil Serpent, The Great Henge
2nd. Splashable, strong uncommons: Epic Downfall, Order of Midnight, Slaying Fire, Clockwork Servant above all of these.
3rd. Strong Hybrid cards, Rampart Smasher, Loch Dragon, Arcanist Owl
4th. Splashable Removal: Scorching Dragonfire, Outmuscle, Reave Soul, Scalding Cauldron over all of these
5th Strong Uncommons/uncommons: Syr Konrad, Bake into a Pie, etc.  Largely cards with 2 colored symbols in their cost

While there's plenty of cards left to point out in each category, it'd get incredibly hard to read if I was just writing a giant list of cards.  Expect a visual pick-order at some point in the next weeks, and if I get ambitious I might do one for card rankings as well.

I would not even for a second argue that Epic Downfall is better than Syr Konrad, but I would say that when weighed against the odds it makes your deck at the end, you get more equity by taking Epic Downfall higher.  Once I'm past the first few picks and I've gained some information, I'm much more likely to just take the strongest cards I see, which has a weird effect of reverting my pick order to one based on power rather than flexibility.

Before engaging in this strategy, have a good idea of what each mono-colored deck needs to look like to be successful, as the entire point is to end up in mono-colored decks as often as possible.  Ending up consistently mono-color when you don't know how to build them won't be anywhere near as effective than drafting in a more traditional manner.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg

Sealed Away MTG Episode 6: 1s 10s and Mono Reds

Link to the podcast here.

This week ran kind of long, as I rambled about some goings on in the format for about 20 minutes.  If you're interested in this week's topics and not nonsense, skip ahead.  Rough week this week, and as such I was enjoying a few beers while recording.  Won't become the norm, but once in a while I'm drinking an IPA while I record this nonsense.

Next podcast is 100% for MC prep, and lucky for you I'm not well known enough to need to keep secrets.

Fresh 3-0 Draft deck, not quite mono red but pretty close.  Huge amount of "getting broken cards" just by being the only person Red heavy enough to play them.  I killed an awful lot of people with Embercleave real early, might post some silly pictures to Twitter later this week.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg on Twitter

Eldraine Aggro

Dominant Strategy

On Limited Resources' last episode, something was said, and I'm paraphrasing here, "[aggressive decks don't work]".  While I've had the vast majority of my success with controlling decks, I've also had good experiences with a bunch of aggressive decks as well.  While I definitely agree with the general sentiment expressed; that aggression is tough in this format, I've found aggressive mono-colored decks to feel very effective.

What makes it so tough to be aggressive?  My best guess is how strong defensive options are, combined with how easy strong card advantage spells are to come by.  If you're in Blue for example, you can almost take for granted you'll get 1-2 Unexplained Visions without having to spend high picks on them.  As a 5 mana card even other Blue drafters won't be looking to pick up every copy they see, meaning that it's likely each player that wants it will have easy access.  Combined with extremely cheap defensive cards like Merfolk Secret Keeper, Reave Soul, and So Tiny, it's both easy to live long enough to pull ahead with a powerful draw spell, and allows you to overpower aggressive opponents after it has resolved.

It's not that the aggressive cards are slouches, as Green has access to an Isamaru, Hound of Konda allegory at common, and combined with cards like Gingerbrute and Rosethorn Halberd it's not unrealistic to run control decks over before they can set up. These decks can even resist a few pieces of cheap interaction along the way.  With Garenbrig Carver, Silverflame Squire, and Rimrock Knight all at common, it can be dangerous to block with 0/4s and 1/4s, as they will often just die for nothing against "free" tricks. 

The issue here stems from turns 3 and beyond, as once you're running these combat trick adventure creatures into your opponent's defenses, you risk getting incredibly blown out by Run Away Together, So Tiny, and cards like Bake into a Pie later on.  Attacking into open mana with the intention of casting a trick is always risky, but in Throne of Eldraine you're often down more mana, more cards, or sometimes both when things don't work out.  It's not that the tools to defeat defensive strategies aren't there, it's that there's a lot of associated risk and a lack of real scaling to compensate.

Aggressive Blueprints

The common denominator for me has been a few things: be mono-colored, play lots of cheap cards, have a way to win in a stalled out game.  The above deck, which managed a trophy, has all of these things in spades.  While ideally I'd have a couple more Weaselback Redcaps, and I'd leave Elite Headhunter and a Hengewalker in the sideboard, this deck was awesome and I was lucky to be able to draft it. Fling gives us the most reach, but with Searing Barrage and Slaying Fire it's not unrealistic to win with opponents at normally healthy lifetotals.

Ideally there's something about your aggressive decks that goes above and beyond, and here we have Torbran, which is incredible on its own, but in concert with Dwarven Mine we can effectively create free 3/1s rather than draw useless lands.  While not every aggressive deck will have such a synergy, having something powerful to do that can turn even games into winning ones brings good decks across the finish line.

The above R/B deck was much more on the midrange end of the spectrum, but here we have a lot of powerful cards, along with Sundering Stroke as our way to finish games out of nowhere.  Brimstone Trebuchet can be incredibly impressive against defensive decks, as it stops them from chipping you out with small fliers while dealing 1-2 unblockable damage a turn.  This deck shares none of the tenants of success of the previous deck, but relies instead on general high card quality and a strong gameplan involving pinging opponents to death.

As this is much less repeatable I'd lean toward the direction shown in the first deck rather than this one, although keep in mind that it's possible to lean on the combat step as long as you've got some effective non-combat ways of closing.

Quick Tips

• Cheap cards give you an axis to fight on, mana efficiency.  Starting games with 1 mana creatures and 2 mana creatures consistently will ensure you can play to one of your main strengths, punishing slow draws.
• Have an effective plan for the format.  Here that means having a lot of reach to win through clogged boards, or having cards your opponent has a tough time nullifying.  Cards like Brimstone Trebuchet that can't be blocked are a good way to beat opponents trying to play long games and block with 0/4s.
• Slower aggressive decks must have much higher card quality to be aggressive.  Decks full of good uncommons and rares will have the raw power required to beat more controlling decks, even though the format skews slow it doesn't mean a pile of good uncommons/rares can't buck the trend.
• Avoid midrange decks.  Decks that plan to win by attacking but don't involve lots of cheap cards or rares are easy prey for decks with Counterspells, card draw, and a mill plan.  Try to pick the most aggressive end of the spectrum, or the most controlling, save the space in between for post sideboard games.

Defense, Stomp Stomp

As an aggressive deck, this is what the enemy looks like.  You need to be able to beat decks like this, which means having cards that line up well vs. Didn't Say Please, So Tiny, and 0/4s.  Brimstone Trebuchet often must be dealt with or raced, but it's cards like Weaselback Redcap, Wildwood Tracker, and Gingerbrute that really allow you to keep pace with controlling decks looking to go long.  So Tiny is a lot less impressive when it's not generating a mana advantage.

I'd rather end up in places like this; decks full of ways to draw extra cards that typically win through milling.  I expect a deck like this to win more on average than a comparable aggressive deck.  Control isn't without its drawbacks, as there's a lot of requirements. Cheap defensive creatures, draw spells, and removal/effective removal, although each one has enough redundancy that if a deck like this is open to you whatsoever you should be able to draft a strong version. 

A quick note on this deck; I used Witching Well instead of Unexplained Vision, as it combined with Animating Faerie but also facilitated my plan of never tapping out.  While I only splashed for Wild Preserver in my main deck, Fell the Pheasant felt great whenever I brought it in, and in similar decks I've loved having access to Return to Nature, especially when I can buy it back with Mystic Sanctuary.

Simply put, there aren't enough associated cards in a draft to allow everyone to draft aggressive decks or control decks, so it's important to learn how both sides work to maximize equity in your seat.

Closing Thoughts

Keep in mind what decks might look like in this format, as most often your decks should beat an aggressive deck and a slow, controlling deck.  Have a plan to win "mirrors" and to beat whatever the opposite type of deck is to yours. This might mean putting Trail of Crumbs in your aggressive Green deck, or picking up an extra Reaper of Night for a control mirror post sideboard.  Going overboard will sacrifice what your deck actually does, so remember that when trying to give yourself help winning mirrors.

As I write this, I'm 64-19 in Throne of Eldraine with 9 3-0's.  My win percentage is 77%, and I'm sitting at 1912 after falling from 1913 earlier in the night.  I wish I had more time to play, but I couldn't be happier with how my approach is going.  I'll be posting my stats here every week, at the end of every Friday's article.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg

What Makes a Tough First Pick?

Nothing is more omnipresent in Limited content than the classic "Pack 1 Pick 1" scenario.  We all collectively suspend disbelief for a moment and pretend we're sitting at a Premier event draft table, a Pro Tour or GP Day 2 draft, and try to pick a card that generates us the highest equity moving forward.  There's numerous ways to simplify the process, as comparing each card vs. each other card in the pack is incredibly time consuming.  The vast majority of us have some internal pick order, telling us what we think are the strongest cards in the set, and it's best to just pick whatever card you have highest.  If we internally assign Fierce Witchstalker a 3.5 out of 5 and assign Scorching Dragonfire a 3.6 out of 5, we take Scorching Dragonfire 100% of the time, saving us valuable mental energy and time.

Reality of First Picks

80% of all first picks are incredibly easy, and the next 10% are only slightly harder.  Very rarely are multiple cards of very similar values opened, especially when all of those packs have to also not include a powerful rare, as that'll quell the discussion instantly.  I could open a pack for instance that contains Bake into a Pie, Fierce Witchstalker, Scorching Dragonfire, and Reave Soul.  In this hypothetical pack, I'd normally take Bake into a Pie as the best card, but if I strongly believe Black to be overdrafted and maybe have a soft spot for Red, it could be better to take Scorching Dragonfire, as there's a very slight nod against Bake into a Pie with Reave Soul getting passed along.  It turns out there was an Oko, Thief of Crowns in this pack, rendering that entire scenario irrelevant, but I've dropped a few hints on to how first picks get interesting.

For every pack with 4 great commons vying for our attention, there's 5 more packs with a stand out common or uncommon that's far and away better than everything else.  There's also piles of packs where there's a contest between 2 cards, but nothing else in the pack compares.  In such situations, it can often be said that the pick is either close enough as to be irrelevant what the choice is, or there's some minor internal debate but the clear answer emerges easily.  So if I'm saying the vast majority of Pack 1 Pick 1 scenarios are easily solved once you know what cards are strong, what makes for an interesting one?

Heavy Commitment and Risk, No Commitment Low Pay-Off

While I can't conjure up every situation that can make for a tough pick, a consistent one is having to weigh a bunch of reasonably powerful, heavily committal cards vs. mediocre roleplayers.  In such a pack, there's no stand-outs, so no strong rare, and also typically no strong commons either.  Strong cards in the pack are all relatively even in strength, but involve making a major prediction on how the draft will go, or risk not getting played.  Weaker cards that involve less commitment have much higher odds of making a potential deck, but are weak enough that you'd almost rather not have to play them at all.  Here's the pack that spawned this article, basic land omitted:

General Approach

Just looking at this pack I can't imagine that anyone makes a snap decision.  The rare and uncommons all have powerful homes but have heavy associated commitments.  The commons in this pack in general are quite underpowered, with out a single one I'd even be OK starting with.

Step 1. Eliminate all of the cards we've got absolutely no interest in.  For me, this removes Ardenvale Paladin, Barge In, Fling, Mantle of the Tides, Silverflame Ritual, and Thrill of Possibility.  I've been conditioned to avoid White to some extent and Red a little less, so I'd really not to like to start with a mediocre to bad card of one of those colors.  Mantle of the Tides has consistently underperformed for my opponents, and I've yet to register it a single time.

Step 2. Take a second look with the above removed. While I've had good experiences with Barrow Witches, Lochtwain Paladin, and Wicked Guardian, none of them make my Black decks often enough for me to want to make a pick so conservative.  Tuinvale Treefolk has impressed, as it's an effect I always want in my Green decks, but I still consider it not enough to avoid the riskier Rare/Uncommons.  Having a good idea of where you value each card is very important when making the second pass here.  In general, I would bias toward taking a risk, as the cards in this pack are weak enough that I might not even play them if I end up in their respective colors.

Step 3. Take a hard look at yourself and pick a strategy you prefer.  Each pick here represents a strategy, so go with your biases to help make the best decision for you.

Doom Foretold. This feels like the safest pick to me, as I'd consider splashing this if I was U/B, U,W, or G/B, as this is a powerful card in a more controlling strategy.  The last place I'm looking to end up is B/W, potentially my least favorite color combination in the entire set, but I recognize that that's where this will be best.  My fear here is that there's still not enough pay-off, as once my deck skews more aggressive, or if I've got a lot of enchantment removal like Trapped in a Tower and Charmed Sleep, this really falls flat.  Power level is generally first pick level, but it can skew wildly depending on match-up or where exactly I end up.

Heraldic Banner. Despite not having any colors I find this card to have very stringent color requirements.  I really want my decks to use both halves of this effectively, and I've not found that to be true outside of mono-White..  There are other decks that will want this, as any deck that's interested in a 3 mana rock, or is heavy on creatures might welcome a Heraldic Banner, but I consider this to be largely a mono-White card.

Resolute Rider. Another card that feels like it's shoving us into a White deck, but at least I feel like the pay-off is here.  I've found this card to be nigh (or maybe neigh) unbeatable vs. some strategies, as many decks don't have removal that kills this after the first turn cycle, and once it's not dying it needs a 5 toughness creature to brick it, a relatively rare commodity in this set.  With all of that said it's very unlikely I'll be able to cast this if I take it, as I need Black, White, or some combination of the two to be open enough for me to put 12+ sources in my deck.  It feels like the odds I cast this are incredibly low.

Steelclaw Lance.  Another Gold card, but one I've had great experiences with thus far.  Whenever you're equipping this for 1 mana it feels stupid, as not only are all of your creatures incredibly threatening, but you can easily play offense and defense at once just by having 2 extra mana to spend.  Despite the high pay-off, and my preference toward R/B, this has a deceptive commitment associated just like the other cards here.  You need Knights, a lot of them, and you've got to have a high creature count as well.  With cards like Barrow Witches and Brimstone Trebuchet caring about Knights but not actually being them, it can be deceptively tough to have a high enough Knight count for this card to be great.

Making a pick of any of these four cards is going to involve an internal calculation where you weigh the odds a card makes a theoretical deck against how objectively powerful you consider that card to be.

If you're unsure of what you'd take, now's the time to figure it out as I'm revealing mine after some convenient line breaks.







I took Resolute Rider, and in retrospect I made a mistake.  I believe that taking Doom Foretold sacrificed power, but the odds I'd end up playing it were enough higher than Resolute Rider's odds that it made for a better first pick.  As expected with a pick full of commitment heavy cards, I didn't play Resolute Rider as I ended up a U/g Trail of Crumbs fueled control deck.  The draft continued its difficulty from beginning to end, although the disconnected player might have been responsible for that.  Just maybe.

Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg on Twitter

The Uncommon Throne

As it's early in the format's lifecycle, this ranking will likely have a few changes while things shake themselves out and people optimize their strategies.  With that said, I've seen each following card overperform to an extent that I'm confident that it belongs as one of the best 10 uncommons in this set.

As most of the uncommon Gold/Hybrid cards are great in their respective strategies, but quite committal, I've stuck to mono-colored cards for this article.  Clockwork Servant is also out, although I'm not confident it should make the list.

Honorable Mentions: Oakhame Adversary, Beanstalk Giant, Faerie Vandal, Animating Faerie.

Competition at uncommon is steeper than I've ever seen, and I'd say that all of the above cards could be a top uncommon in most sets where they've got a bit of contextual support.  While I wouldn't be the slightest bit unhappy to start my draft with any of the above cards, they fall short of making the list.


Notable Omissions: Syr Carah, the Bold, White/Red cards

I know others have had good experiences with Syr Carah, but whenever I've cast it I just wish it was something else.  3/3s for 5 aren't relevant enough in combat, and my Red decks haven't been hurting for a late game card advantage engine, just something to deal the last few points immediately.

White and Red have some strong uncommons, like Mysterious Pathlighter and Shepherd of the Flock in White, and Syr Carah, the Bold and Slaying Fire in Red.  Blacks uncommons are so universally incredible that combined with the best uncommons from Blue and Green there's no room here for White and Red cards.

10. Revenge of Ravens 

If you'd have told me I'd be starting this list with Revenge of Ravens just a few weeks ago I would have called you, whoever you are, a maniac.  While there's quite a bit to unpack with why this card is actually good, I can summarize by saying that there's a lot of small creatures attacking this time around, and Black has life drain as a major color theme, meaning that it's not safe to just take millions off this ability.  Playing against this card in multiples is as depressing as Magic ever gets, as the vast majority of creatures quickly gain defender.  I still think most players are overrating this, as any controlling deck just won't care about this whatsoever, but I'd rather start my Draft with Revenge of Ravens vs. any White or Red uncommon.

9. Keeper of Fables

4/5 is a great set of stats with a lot of creatures having 4 toughness and quite a few 4/4s running around.  The ability is harder to make work than I'd have expected as Green isn't flush with non-Humans, and as you're only ever getting one card each turn no matter how many creatures connect this doesn't snowball out of control quickly.  It's rough to take a hit from the passive, but not game ending, and as the ability is also mandatory it can be awkward when one of the major archetypes is trying to mill you out.  I think the format is relatively hostile to this card compared to my initial impression, although I'm still stoked to first pick Keeper of Fables out of strong packs.

8. Foulmire Knight

During my set review I noted a lower than usual amount of fliers, specifically ones that you're interested in killing.  With all of the ground combat that goes on a result, this card is just a card positive brick wall that's nearly impossible to punish outside of exactly Syr Carah, the Bold.  With Forever Young and Witch's Cottage in Black it's not unreasonable to forcibly trade this off and continuously accrue value by rebuying it a bunch.  As a non-human Knight this also scales off every tribal bonus in the set, and I'd describe Foulmire Knight as one of the most consistent over performers in the set as a result.

7. Edgewall Innkeeper

Adventuring steadily downwards in my pick order has been Edgewall Innkeeper, which I had initially pegged as best uncommon in the set by a lot, but has failed me enough times that it finds itself dropped to 7th.  My biggest gripe with this card is that if you don't take it relatively early in pack 1, or even pack 2, you just don't have enough time to fulfill the build around condition.  Taken early this card is still totally busted, as when you've got the time to take Adventure cards a bit higher than usual this is just a ridiculous draw engine that must always be killed at a tempo disadvantage.  While I don't expect this card to slide much further, this is the card on this list that's most likely to fall off. 

 

6. Order of Midnight

Most of the time, this is going to come down as a 2 mana 2/2 flier that can't block and happens to have Knight typing.  While that's a fine enough package, late in the game this is a Gravedigger that trades the ability to block with Flying and an option to cast it in installments.  While you're not getting the total package right away if you're splashing this, this is one of the very few cards in the set I'd try for.  Black has a great life drain plan supported across lots of cards, and a 2 mana evasive flier with 2 power will greatly facilitate those plans, while also accruing value in long games.

 

5. Bog Naughty 

Trading Food for Last Gasps is the real dream for a Food pay-off.  Combat becomes impossible with Bog Naughty and a Food or two in play, and with this effect stapled to a 5 mana 3/3 flier everything about this card is great.  While there's definitely some work associated, as there aren't a lot of ways to gain free Food, killing a single creature with this ability is often enough to swing a game, with the threat to do it again in the absence of an answer.

 

4. Trail of Crumbs

My experience with this format has been lots of grindy games, and in a deck with just a few other ways to make Food this card is unreasonable.  Lifegain from food buys you the time needed to continuously activate this, and the ability select the best permanent from 2 means that you can dig for what you need, often additional ways to keep activating Trail of Crumbs.  I've also really liked this card as a plan B for aggressive decks, as if you're in the market for Gingerbrute you can trade that rascal in for something else once it's no longer useful.  Every Green deck can make solid use of Trail of Crumbs, but when built around it feels incredibly oppressive.

 

3. Syr Elenora, the Discerning

At absolute worst this is a 5 mana 1/4 that's hard to target and draws a card.  While that's not an effect to write home about, when you've got a few cards in hand this is just stupid.  Anytime you can hold onto 4 cards or more this will demand a trade or answer, and in either exchange you're significantly advantaged.  As a finisher this can kill incredibly quickly, as in your Blue decks it's not unreasonable to be at a consistent full grip thanks to cards like Unexplained Vision and Witching Well.  To top all of this off this combines great with Run Away Together, and even has Knight text which will have relevance occasionally.

2. Epic Downfall

Blowout generated by Epic Downfall turn games around fast, as this always trades up in mana and even exiles, stopping future recursion or death triggers.  Despite how hostile this format is to splashing, Epic Downfall is so efficient that it bucks that trend, and I'm especially happy to splash for this in my otherwise mono-colored deck.  The only drawback here is the Sorcery speed, but even without the ability to blow out multi-blocks and combat tricks this card is absolutely insane.

 

1. Syr Konrad, the Grim

Nearly every time I see this card come down I assume I'm going to lose.  Thus far, I've lost to every aspect of this card, almost independently of all its other text.  Decked? Yep.  Combo killed? Sure.  Attacked? Absolutely.  White and Blue enchantment based removal is a joke on this card, as the incredibly powerful static ability is still intact, and under Charmed Sleep the active is also still live.  As if Syr Konrad needed any more help, he's quite Knightly, and as such works with all of the various Knight cards, most notably Barrow Witches which ensures that you access a back-up copy if the game comes to that.  #1 barely does this card justice, as I'd put it above most of the Rares and Mythics in my pick order, somewhere between 10th and 15th best card in the set.

Disagree or agree? Think I made a major snub? I'm always happy to talk on Twitter @sealedawaymtg, in the comments here, or by e-mail at sealedawaymtg@gmail.com

Until next time,
Kevin