Reality of First Picks
80% of all first picks are incredibly easy, and the next 10% are only slightly harder. Very rarely are multiple cards of very similar values opened, especially when all of those packs have to also not include a powerful rare, as that'll quell the discussion instantly. I could open a pack for instance that contains Bake into a Pie, Fierce Witchstalker, Scorching Dragonfire, and Reave Soul. In this hypothetical pack, I'd normally take Bake into a Pie as the best card, but if I strongly believe Black to be overdrafted and maybe have a soft spot for Red, it could be better to take Scorching Dragonfire, as there's a very slight nod against Bake into a Pie with Reave Soul getting passed along. It turns out there was an Oko, Thief of Crowns in this pack, rendering that entire scenario irrelevant, but I've dropped a few hints on to how first picks get interesting.For every pack with 4 great commons vying for our attention, there's 5 more packs with a stand out common or uncommon that's far and away better than everything else. There's also piles of packs where there's a contest between 2 cards, but nothing else in the pack compares. In such situations, it can often be said that the pick is either close enough as to be irrelevant what the choice is, or there's some minor internal debate but the clear answer emerges easily. So if I'm saying the vast majority of Pack 1 Pick 1 scenarios are easily solved once you know what cards are strong, what makes for an interesting one?
Heavy Commitment and Risk, No Commitment Low Pay-Off
While I can't conjure up every situation that can make for a tough pick, a consistent one is having to weigh a bunch of reasonably powerful, heavily committal cards vs. mediocre roleplayers. In such a pack, there's no stand-outs, so no strong rare, and also typically no strong commons either. Strong cards in the pack are all relatively even in strength, but involve making a major prediction on how the draft will go, or risk not getting played. Weaker cards that involve less commitment have much higher odds of making a potential deck, but are weak enough that you'd almost rather not have to play them at all. Here's the pack that spawned this article, basic land omitted:
General Approach
Just looking at this pack I can't imagine that anyone makes a snap decision. The rare and uncommons all have powerful homes but have heavy associated commitments. The commons in this pack in general are quite underpowered, with out a single one I'd even be OK starting with.Step 1. Eliminate all of the cards we've got absolutely no interest in. For me, this removes Ardenvale Paladin, Barge In, Fling, Mantle of the Tides, Silverflame Ritual, and Thrill of Possibility. I've been conditioned to avoid White to some extent and Red a little less, so I'd really not to like to start with a mediocre to bad card of one of those colors. Mantle of the Tides has consistently underperformed for my opponents, and I've yet to register it a single time.
Step 2. Take a second look with the above removed. While I've had good experiences with Barrow Witches, Lochtwain Paladin, and Wicked Guardian, none of them make my Black decks often enough for me to want to make a pick so conservative. Tuinvale Treefolk has impressed, as it's an effect I always want in my Green decks, but I still consider it not enough to avoid the riskier Rare/Uncommons. Having a good idea of where you value each card is very important when making the second pass here. In general, I would bias toward taking a risk, as the cards in this pack are weak enough that I might not even play them if I end up in their respective colors.
Step 3. Take a hard look at yourself and pick a strategy you prefer. Each pick here represents a strategy, so go with your biases to help make the best decision for you.
Doom Foretold. This feels like the safest pick to me, as I'd consider splashing this if I was U/B, U,W, or G/B, as this is a powerful card in a more controlling strategy. The last place I'm looking to end up is B/W, potentially my least favorite color combination in the entire set, but I recognize that that's where this will be best. My fear here is that there's still not enough pay-off, as once my deck skews more aggressive, or if I've got a lot of enchantment removal like Trapped in a Tower and Charmed Sleep, this really falls flat. Power level is generally first pick level, but it can skew wildly depending on match-up or where exactly I end up.
Heraldic Banner. Despite not having any colors I find this card to have very stringent color requirements. I really want my decks to use both halves of this effectively, and I've not found that to be true outside of mono-White.. There are other decks that will want this, as any deck that's interested in a 3 mana rock, or is heavy on creatures might welcome a Heraldic Banner, but I consider this to be largely a mono-White card.
Resolute Rider. Another card that feels like it's shoving us into a White deck, but at least I feel like the pay-off is here. I've found this card to be nigh (or maybe neigh) unbeatable vs. some strategies, as many decks don't have removal that kills this after the first turn cycle, and once it's not dying it needs a 5 toughness creature to brick it, a relatively rare commodity in this set. With all of that said it's very unlikely I'll be able to cast this if I take it, as I need Black, White, or some combination of the two to be open enough for me to put 12+ sources in my deck. It feels like the odds I cast this are incredibly low.
Steelclaw Lance. Another Gold card, but one I've had great experiences with thus far. Whenever you're equipping this for 1 mana it feels stupid, as not only are all of your creatures incredibly threatening, but you can easily play offense and defense at once just by having 2 extra mana to spend. Despite the high pay-off, and my preference toward R/B, this has a deceptive commitment associated just like the other cards here. You need Knights, a lot of them, and you've got to have a high creature count as well. With cards like Barrow Witches and Brimstone Trebuchet caring about Knights but not actually being them, it can be deceptively tough to have a high enough Knight count for this card to be great.
Making a pick of any of these four cards is going to involve an internal calculation where you weigh the odds a card makes a theoretical deck against how objectively powerful you consider that card to be.
If you're unsure of what you'd take, now's the time to figure it out as I'm revealing mine after some convenient line breaks.
I took Resolute Rider, and in retrospect I made a mistake. I believe that taking Doom Foretold sacrificed power, but the odds I'd end up playing it were enough higher than Resolute Rider's odds that it made for a better first pick. As expected with a pick full of commitment heavy cards, I didn't play Resolute Rider as I ended up a U/g Trail of Crumbs fueled control deck. The draft continued its difficulty from beginning to end, although the disconnected player might have been responsible for that. Just maybe.
Until next time,
Kevin
@sealedawaymtg on Twitter
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